DU JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT & SOCIAL SCIENCES

• Mary Oyindamola OYEKANMI

  Ajayi Crowther University, Oyo State

  Author

• Sesan Sunday ABERE

  Ajayi Crowther University

  Author

This study examines the short-run and long-run impacts of urbanisation on environmental degradation in Nigeria from 1981 to 2024. Nigeria is undergoing rapid demographic transition with high rural to urban migration and emergence of large cities. This has led to high carbon emissions and ecological stress. However, the temporal dynamics between urbanisation and environmental outcomes in Nigeria are under-modelled; most previous studies are based on single environmental indicators and on linear modelling which may not fully model the complexity of urbanisation– environment relations. This study analyses both the short-run adjustment dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships between urbanisation and two complementary environmental indicators, carbon dioxide emissions and ecological footprint using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework. Results indicate that urbanisation has a significant and positive long-run impact on CO₂ emissions and ecological footprint, supporting the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) hypothesis, which states that the concentration of population and economic activities leads to a greater environmental stress. The results of the error correction model verify the cointegration and stable long-run equilibrium with a speed of adjustment of 41.8% per year for carbon emissions. Energy turns out to be a key short-term CO₂ determinant and GDP per capita exhibits EKClike trends for ecological footprint. The results highlight the need to incorporate environmental sustainability goals into the National Urban Development Policy and the Climate Change Act 2021 as well as other urban development policies in Nigeria in order to fulfill SDG 11 and SDG 13 targets.

1. Mary Oyindamola OYEKANMI, Ajayi Crowther University, Oyo State

   Department of Economics, Ajayi Crowther University, Oyo, Oyo State, Nigeria

2. Sesan Sunday ABERE, Ajayi Crowther University

   Department of Economics, Ajayi Crowther University, Oyo, Oyo State, Nigeria

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